C. Clint Bolte & Associates

The 25^th annual Print Outlook Conference drew 88 attendees to the Hilton Arlington December 1-2 to address the marketing and economic summit issues for the printing and converting industries. Economists opined the near and midterm direction of various economic indices. Consultants debated the print industry impact of trade offs of the various advertising media. Government affairs specialists offered the current status of legislation of most import to the industry and printer panelists described their transition from printers to marketing services support facilitators.

The industry has followed with interest and no small frustration the Federal legislative logjam on Postal Reform. And yet few attendees were aware of the 65 different bills being debated that address data. The printing, mailing and fulfillment industries and their associated political action committees have not really taken defined positions concerning these bills. Bruce Biegel, Managing Director of the strategic consultancy Winterbury Group LLC and direct mail experts, suggested that considering the importance the printing industry has placed upon digital printing as a future growth process they need to get up to speed pretty quick on these potential laws. This "data legislation" could have some hidden surprises relative to the use of personal data due to "security provisions" and therefore vendor liability. The use of personal information is essential to the roll out of digital variable printing.

While the personal databases will ultimately be expected to be owned by some corporate publisher, the digital printer could face unexpected liabilities as they currently do when copyright clearance comes into play. For example, college professors select articles and book chapters, many of which are copyrighted, to comprise the course pack materials sold to their students enrolled in specific courses. The laws have focused the copyright clearance liability on the printer if clearance has not been properly sought. Copyright clearance obligation may not be analogous for data legislation but then again it might be dead on. Stay tuned for topical discussions at future NPES Print Outlook and possibly Executive Outlook Conferences.

Keynoter John Engler, President of the nation's largest trade group - the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and former three-term Michigan governor, gave the "Outlook for Manufacturing." While the U.S. manufacturing sector is the "eighth largest economy in the world" and for the first time in five years its growth exceeded that of the United States in 2004, it is faced with three substantial challenges preventing it from competing globally on an even playing field. The first is the rising cost of healthcare. A NAM study indicated that $300 billion are spent each year on the redundant paper work in the healthcare information national structure. "Only public education is worse," commented Engler.

Second challenge is the broadening gap in new employee skills. "Eighty percent of manufacturers are experiencing skill shortages (right now)." "Manufacturers use more metrics (to measure progress) every week than any school uses in a year," Engler offered. With $500 billion being spent on education each year Engler concluded, "This is not a funding but a leadership issue!"

Escalating cost of energy is the third manufacturing challenge. No realistic national strategy exists to boost energy supply. Fifty-five percent more energy will be needed by 2025 than consumed today. Bringing back nuclear power, drilling on the continental outer shelf, bringing a pipeline down to the lower 48 states are options that must be realistically addressed. The Federal Regulatory infrastructure and approval process must be corrected. The Fed keeps changing the rules after construction is approved but before project completion which adds to costs and financial risks. China is spending $50 billion to build 30 nuclear power plants. The United States permitting time now exceeds ten years for one nuclear power plant.

Norman Ornstein, a political election analyst for CBS and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, spoke on the Political Outlook. Throughout the nation, not just in Washington, "there is a virtual parity between the two parties. Consequently everything is up for grabs at every election. The 99 state legislatures have 7,500 elected legislators: 3,658 Republicans and 3,656 Democrats." The impact of a shift in control is immense at both the state and federal levels.

When the Democrats held the majority from 1954-1994, "the political philosophical differences between both parties were like a bell curve of distribution around the 50 yard line." Today's Congress has the dispersion of ideology of the two parties looking like a double humped or bimodal distribution at either end of a football field. Compromises appear extremely difficult to reach. Both parties need to "reach out across the divide," but no one seems to be stepping up to be first remarked Ornstein.

History has shown that second term presidencies, according to Ornstein, have no real new ideas and are often characterized by scandals. When the Vice President is not an heir apparent, the potential Presidential candidates become more aggressive resulting in more alienation within the current President's own party. And the implosion continues as "the riverboat gamble of Iraq plays itself out."

Frank Cost, RIT Professor of Digital Publishing and Printing, offered a personal case study based upon the publishing and production of his current book. It involves a "changed mindset" and "centered around web-based business processes." He commented that most University Publishing ventures, and private sector as well for that matter, are "money pits" because of the unpredictability of demand and unsold inventories. His book was produced both by offset and in digital print mode via Lulu.com. This Internet entity is similar to Amazon.com but offering more margin to the publisher. With unit production costs being $1.40 for offset and $10 for digital and selling price the same for both, the net publishing margin is comparable. However, the inventory carrying cost and risk of the offset version is eliminated with the digital print model.

Lulu.com is the Internet print developer who has a strategic partnership with a digital book manufacturer, in this case Rochester's Color Centric Corporation.